Kenton's posterous

Trapped on the subway!

Today I spent over an hour trapped on an N train in Brooklyn. Apparently an unauthorized individual was seen on the tracks and a police pursuit ensued. 

Rapid Web Design

Here it is. Four of us (Andrew Hochradel, Brock Gordon, Keelin
Jacobsen, and myself) are setting out with an idea for a website, and
in the next 24 hours, we will create it. We are coming into this with
no actual work done on the projects, only ideas in our heads and some
notes on paper. The idea of creating a website from nothing in a short
amount of time has fascinated me for a while, and when Brock and I
started discussing this idea, I knew it would be a perfect plan.

Now, this isn't to say that the completed website will be perfect, but
it will be complete as a first version. Stay tuned for the reveal of
exactly what we are doing and how it goes. The only thing I can say
now is that it will affect CBU students in a good way.

Monday Morning Ruminations

It always feels good when your recent sales drop. Good to be out of
them, and not take the hit, and nice to see that I could start
thinking about getting back in. Today both of my recent sales are down
significantly (NYT, LLNW), so I'm feeling pretty good.

Now for the bad news, I really missed it on AMZN and WFMI. Two stocks
that I've been watching for a while, that have done really well
lately. WFMI I had all figured out in April of 2009. I figured they
would be a stock that would withstand the economy and even grow. With
their niche and wealthy clientele they would not see a decrease in
patronige, and if costs of products went up, their consumers would pay
it.

They sure have done well; however, as soon as they started to go
without me in, I started to feel that I was too late on them. They
just kept going thought. If I had bought them April of last year at
18, or at 25, or even 30 I would be doing really well right now.

As for AMZN, I've mainly been thinking that they're too expensive. . .
since January. They had a little drop at the beginning of the year,
then they stayed pretty stable for the majority of the year, but the
past few months, they've just been shooting up. $120-$170, and at this
point (despite being too expensive) I think they have further to go.
With the state of the economy, and I'm not sure exactly what else, but
I feel that online shopping is going to be above the trend this year,
and that retail is going to take a hit. Amazon is in a great position
to capitalize on this.

This brings me to the Kindle. They are really smart about this. The
goal for them isn't getting people to buy the Kindle and making an
outrageous profit from that (in fact, I'm certain that the profit
margin on the devices is rather small), but to get people roped into
their system. Kindle is a closed system, you can't buy anyone else's
books on there. And now with their iPad, iPhone, Mac and PC apps, you
don't even have to have a Kindle to get their books. They also still
have the best selection of publishers, so they are desirable even with
other offerings.

So basically I see them doing well. They are overbought right now, but
if I can get beyond that, I think they have more in them for a little
while. The question will be when to get out. Will their next set of
numbers be read at a place accommodating for their high P/E, or will
it bring investors back to the ground?

Back to Mac brings Apple back front and center

Apple, Inc. announced new hardware and software offerings at their
Back to Mac event today. Most interesting is their Mac App store, in
which they will showcase software made by other developers, and will
make 30% off the sales. This is really really good for them, since
they did nothing to create the software, and approving and serving the
software is of negligible cost.

I am not sure how many developers will come along for the ride. I'm
sure the small people will for exposure, but I'm not sure if anyone
big enough will do it. For iOS devices, it is the only way to install
software, but on a computer, what is the point? However, if they are
able to create a closed system to install software in, it would be an
answer to piracy. Software companies could release their software only
in the Mac store, and the only way to get it is to purchase it through
there. For a company like Adobe that has significant piracy issues,
they may be willing to sacrifice 30% of their income to essentially
become piracy-proof.

Another interesting thing is this new fusion of iPad-Mac. It's
essentially creating a new layer of abstraction above even the visual
OS level. Already we are so far away from the 1's and 0's that we
almost begin to question whether they matter anymore or not. Now
moving more visual with icons and interface elements, we are starting
to put away from text as well. I am philosophically concerned by this
move, it's pushing our culture even more image-based and even less
word-based, or is it simply a reaction to a culture that has already
moved in that direction.

As for the new Macbook Airs, I can't say I didn't see this coming, but
I am a little concerned by it. They continuing to remove the
modularity from these computers bit by bit. Some time ago now they
made the battery not user-serviceable; now the hard drive is directly
affixed to the mainboard itself. If you want to upgrade your storage,
you have to buy a whole new computer. Then again, at $1000, does it
even matter? Are these computers disposable now? However, it does
allow these devices to be instant-on, which is pretty neat for a fully
functioning computer.

As for their stock, I feel like they did not necessarily blow any
minds, but they did show that they are on the right track, and able to
continue pushing the envelope. With the slight hike in their stock
today, I think that investors mainly just accepted the recent spike on
GOOG's report, and we're going to be staying above $300 for some time
now. I can see $350, maybe even $400 by January.

Wikileaks: Should we start copywriting our classified documents?

Ping Pong Experience

My brother is out here in NYC, and the only challenge is that he isn't 21. The only time this really gives us trouble is looking for stuff to do in the evenings--most of the places open are 21 only.

We decided last night to go check out this ping pong club called Spin in Chelsea. I knew they carded pretty heavily, but we decided to check anyway.

When we arrived the bouncer was out doing his thing, so we stepped aside and contemplated our next move. Then we noticed the trashcan on the sidewalk.

I'm not saying who did it or what exactly happened, but next thing we know, the trashcan is on fire. I turn to Keelin and say, you know, it would be funny if the bouncer left to go deal with the fire. Turn back and he's gone.

We had a good night of ping pong watching and playing, and all it took was a little trashcan fire.

Sent from my iPhone

Thoughts on the Jailbreaking ruling

Why is there such a fuss over the Jailbreaking ruling by the Library of Congress's Copyright Office? In short, James H. Billington, the librarian, ruled that the Digital Millennium Copyright Act did not forbid jailbreaking iPhones (or other types of phones). The DMCA is the most overused and overwritten copyright law on the books, and I slightly despise it because it seems to have significantly encroached on fair use situations for quite some time (remember personal use DVD copying software company 321studios that got shut down?) To my knowledge, Apple has not pursued legal action against any iPhone jailbreaking teams or individuals under the DMCA or any other legislation. It is nice that the Electronic Frontier Foundation requested that the copyright office look into this issue and that it was ruled this way, but it's nothing new, only a formality.

Apple has not changed their stance, nor should they. Users can do what they wish with their device, but if they modify settings, files, or firmware that is not publicly accessible and documented, then the company cannot take responsibly for what happens after that. With the inextricable nature of some of the iPhone software and hardware there is real potential to damage or destroy the phone permanently, and Apple should not be held responsible for these actions. (Full disclosure, I am a proud shareholder of Apple.) As someone who builds websites and is regularly asked to make changes to elements that "should have never been that way" and "should be under warranty," I understand Apple wanting to limit their liability.

Furthermore there is certainly a high potential to create bugs, instability, or security issues as well. Apple has a huge team working on software development and quality assurance, verses the individuals or small teams that work part time on modifying their code through jailbreaking, often in very creative, undocumented, and unexpected ways. Since Apple's name rides on each phone that is out there, they certainly do not want anyone to having a less than stellar experience with their phone because of third party software. So it's certainly understandable that they will make it as difficult as possible to jailbreak.

So, basically, this really isn't news, neither side moved. We already knew this, now it's just on paper.

Fashion and Life

I need to wear bowties more, it's as simple as that. I'm on my way into work right now and I have already gotten one compliment from a random couple on the street in Brooklyn. The guy remarked how he would always wear bowties with platform shoes and triple-pleated pants when he was a kid. All his friends were wearing shoelace ties (and still possibly platforms) but he wanted to look classy.

Then the last time I wore it, the QA lead yelled out "Oh my goodness, it's a bowtie" in the middle of our floor, which scared me a little, then embarrassed me when I realized he was talking about me.

Then later that day I was walking to get food on the way home. I pass by this sidewalk cafe as I cross paths with a girl, and about this time a guy yells something from the cafe. Afterward I realized he said "nice bowtie," but at the time, I figured he was yelling stuff at the girl. I glanced over but didn't say anything, and he tried to compliment me again. I still didn't understand what he was saying, so I just went about my way. When I finally figured it out I considered walking back to converse with him about bowties...

Finally, the very first time that I wore one--just a few short weeks ago--I ran into John Tantillo, marketing expert and bowtie connoisseur. Since he was also wearing a bowtie, we had to shake hands and compliment each other's style.

I'm loving my bowties, especially since I got one for free from gilt group. I am thinking of going even more out of the box though. What about ascotts?

Also I have a new revelation. I may just be a morning person. I am thinking that I may have just been missing my prime waking up hours for most of my life... The past few days I've been going to bed a little early, and waking up really early (5-6AM). I have been really enjoying the time of morning, and not feeling overly tired. I feel more experimenting coming!

Sent from my iPhone

New Scripting Ideas

As a warning, this is a geek post here... So, as I've been working with some Word Press and Drupal at FOX, I've come across two scripts that I would really help me out. Perhaps they already exist, there is an easier way, or it would be just foolish to do such a thing. Any thoughts?

1. Admin password resetter
WP stores user passwords as salted hashes with other data in the mix. Hypothetically if you needed to reset your password and were having issues getting e-mails to go through (which is the current method for a password reset), you wouldn't be able to do so just by MD5'ing your new password and inserting into the DB. In this situation, I am assuming that you have full DB and file access. I think I could write a script that uses a similar method as what WP does to encode a new password and drop it into the DB without existing login. This could be seen as a hacking tool, but if they have full DB and file access, you're already screwed.

2. Serialized data fixer
So. . . due to a little mistake with the URL for a new site, I'm having to dig through the drupal DB and change the URL string as well as the string length. It would be really sweet to have a site (maybe even an AJAX or JS page) that would let you paste in serialized data and have it repaired. This way you could just edit the text and let it do the rest.

Would anyone be interested in such utilities?

Thoughts on AAPL

Apple Inc has been a great ride for me, my best buy ever by far. I purchased their stock a few years back at $65/share after I started to see all my friends getting Macs and I myself got one. This was before the iPhone or iPad were announced. They just made computers and iPods back then (crazy I know).

Since then, they have rocketed up, passing Microsoft in market cap. and doubling or tripling their computer saturation and taking the mobile sector by storm.

I'm worried about their press conference about the iPhone 4 antenna issues tomorrow. I don't think they have a winning card to play. If they admit fault they may have complications in the class action lawsuit that is starting and they are apple, they just can't fail.

If they don't admit fault like they have been doing so far from the leaked and semi public customer service type inquiries, then everyone is going to be upset at them and it also may not be good for the lawsuit.

Finally whether they admit fault or not, they may give something away, like they did with the store credit on the original iPhone after the subsequent $200 price drop. Investors aren't going to like that, cause it will be straight out of their pockets.

I'm wondering though how much it would hurt to give away a set of their bumpers to every iPhone 4 buyer. They must cost them less than $1 for everything, but they retail for $30 or $40, so I suppose it wouldn't really hurt apple except for lost sales, but few people buy Apple branded accessories... I think those are the dynamics, now how about the market reaction?

If they do give away bumpers people will love them, everyone will forget all their problems, and once again worship Steve Jobs. If the investors realize the trade off I outlined, then everything should be fine, although it may take a small dip.

Maybe it's time to sell today and come back next week?

Sent from my iPhone